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By Brent Herbert-Copley, International Development Research Centre (Canada)

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25). If this view is accurate, we can expect to see a wider use of biotechnology in agriculture and the environment. As the century draws to a close, we are in a period of transition, where, amid constant questioning and redefining, we find both resistance to and pressure for change. In summary, for purposes of our work, we need to abandon the deterministic view that puts too much weight on the agroindustrial might of the "North" and underestimates the room for joint action by producers in countries of the "South" (Llambi 1994).

About 6% of person-year jobs will be lost from 1990 to 2005. Scenario B In this scenario (Table 3), production is assumed to depend on exports. It is considered that the relationship between consumption plus exports/total production will be held at 95%. Apart from production and related employment figures, the other variables vary as in the previous scenario. , a decrease of 48% in employment could be perceived at the end of the period 1990-2005 if we consider that the export of coffee is reduced as estimated before.

It is assumed that the biotechnological advances that may contribute to reducing the demand for cocoa and coffee beans from importing countries are already available and affecting trade patterns. This is a simplifying assumption because advanced biotechnological developments for improving cocoa and coffee production are far from being commercialized during the period covered here. According to some experts, routine application of advanced biotechnology for cocoa and coffee improvement may be more than 10 years away.

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