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But even there, the bank’s “reference value”  for M3 growth has played at most a minor role in actual policy decisions (Fischer, Lenza, Pill, and Reichlin, 2006). 25 surely not a lack of any other effective means through which a central bank that wishes to do so can guarantee a desired long-run average inflation rate. This problem is not a difficult one: As long as a central bank possesses a reasonably reliable measure of the price level (with only a modest delay) and some instrument that can influence the rate of inflation (at least eventually) with a known sign, then it is surely possible to offset any past tendency to drift away from the target inflation so as to ensure that no deviation persists unchecked for many years.

In addition to increasing the effectiveness of the Fed’s communication, such a step would help to reconcile the Fed’s operational independence with democratic principles. The conduct of monetary policy under a forecast-targeting framework would probably not have been greatly different than the policy that the Fed has followed in recent years. But in the absence of a clearer commitment to a systematic framework for the conduct of policy, the public has little ground for confidence that the stability achieved over the past decade has not simply been due to luck or the personalities of particular members of the Federal Open Market Committee, so that the situation could change at any time.

12). ” The two criteria are not intended as competing goals that must be balanced with one another; rather, the first indicates the situation that should eventually be reached (in a “medium term” that is not identified with a specific horizon), while the second describes the type of transition path by which it should be reached. 4 The Norges Bank checks whether its projections have this property by superimposing the inflation and output-gap projections in a single figure, like the one in Figure 2.

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